Estimating epidemic coupling between populations from the time to invasion

Identifying the mechanisms by which diseases spread among populations is important for understanding and forecasting patterns of epidemics and pandemics. Estimating transmission coupling among populations is challenging because transmission events are difficult to observe in practice, and connectivity among populations is often obscured by local disease dynamics. We consider the common situation in which an epidemic is seeded in one population and later spreads to a second population. We present a method for estimating transmission coupling between the two populations, assuming they can be modelled as susceptible–infected–removed (SIR) systems. We show that the strength of coupling between the two populations can be estimated from the time taken for the disease to invade the second population. Confidence in the estimate is low if only a single invasion event has been observed, but is substantially improved if numerous independent invasion events are observed. Our analysis of this simplest, idealized scenario represents a first step toward developing and verifying methods for estimating epidemic coupling among populations in an ever-more-connected global human population.     

F-OFDM仿真系统设计与时频同步算法

针对新一代5G波形的F-OFDM技术开展了研究,通过把一个宽带分为若干个子带,对每个子带进行滤波处理以实现更好的通信效能。基于Simulink平台进行了F-OFDM仿真系统的搭建,重点对F-OFDM符号同步方法和频偏估计方法进行了研究与仿真分析。实验结果表明,基于Chu序列相比采用PN序列可以获得更好的同步效果,基于导频的Classen频偏估计算法相比基于CP的CFO估计算法和基于训练序列的Moose估计方法可以获得更好的频偏估计效果。     

Clustering biomedical and gene expression datasets with kernel density and unique neighborhood set based vein detection

It is a crucial need for a clustering technique to produce high-quality clusters from biomedical and gene expression datasets without requiring any user inputs. Therefore, in this paper we present a clustering technique called KUVClust that produces high-quality clusters when applied on biomedical and gene expression datasets without requiring any user inputs. The KUVClust algorithm uses three concepts namely multivariate kernel density estimation, unique closest neighborhood set and vein-based clustering. Although these concepts are known in the literature, KUVClust combines the concepts in a novel manner to achieve high-quality clustering results. The performance of KUVClust is compared with established clustering techniques on real-world biomedical and gene expression datasets. The comparisons were evaluated in terms of three criteria (purity, entropy, and sum of squared error (SSE)). Experimental results demonstrated the superiority of the proposed technique over the existing techniques for clustering both the low dimensional biomedical and high dimensional gene expressions datasets used in the experiments.     

Strengthened interfacial bonding and its effects on fracture mode of TaC ceramics with addition of B

TaC ceramics with 0-0.237 wt% B addition were prepared by hot pressing. The effect of B addition on the phase constitution, interfacial chemistry/bonding and mechanical properties of the TaC ceramics were investigated. Upon B addition, the elimination of O impurity and segregation of B at grain boundaries were evidenced, accompanied by an increase in bonding strength of the TaC grains, to result in a fracture mode change from intergranular to transgranular and a reduced fracture toughness. Addition of excessive B resulted in the formation of TaB₂ and C within TaC ceramics. Further, TaC-TaB₂-SiC composites were prepared by Si addition. Coherent bonding between TaB₂ and TaC was preserved in the TaC-TaB₂-SiC composites, and residual stresses due to thermal expansion mismatch of the different phases increased flexural strength and fracture toughness of the composites.     

Optimized dual-function varistor-capacitor ceramics of core-shell structured xBi2/3Cu3Ti4O12/(1-x)CaCu3Ti4O12 composites

xBi_2/3Cu₃Ti₄O₁₂/(1-x)CaCu₃Ti₄O₁₂ composites were prepared by traditional solid-state reaction method. Extremely high nonlinear coefficient of 25 and breakdown field of 18.92 kV·cm⁻¹ were obtained in small current range of 0.1−1 mA·cm^-2. In addition, reduced dielectric loss of 0.055 was achieved with high dielectric constant of 1369. Optimized nonlinear and dielectric properties were integrated to make the composites a promising dual-function varistor-capacitor candidate. Microstructure analysis discovered two areas with various Bi/Ca ratio, designated as Bi-H and Bi-L respectively. It was found that the maximum ratio of Bi-H/Bi-L heterogeneous interface corresponded to optimized nonlinear and dielectric performance, which was associated with elevated potential barrier height and huge grain boundary resistance. Combined with relaxation analysis, a core-shell structure was proposed to elaborate microstructure evolution in xBi_2/3Cu₃Ti₄O₁₂/(1-x)CaCu₃Ti₄O₁₂ composite. According to the core-shell model, variation of heterogeneous interface was illustrated on how to influence nonlinear properties, which was well fitted to experimental results.     

Anti‐Sway Crane Control Considering Wind Disturbance and Container Mass

A method for estimating the sway angle using an observer has already been proposed. The state observer estimates the sway angle accurately and must use the detected sway angle value. However, the estimated sway angle has an error owing to rope length error, friction force, and wind. Moreover, the container mass cannot be determined, and therefore the observer parameter is not suitable. We already proposed robust antisway control for overcoming rope length error without adding a new sensor. Further, we designed a friction disturbance observer to cancel out the influence of the friction force. In this paper, we first propose a container mass estimation method when a crane system performs rolling up control. The observer parameter can be selected using the estimated mass value. Second, in crane parallel shift control, we propose a robust antisway control even when there is a wind disturbance. We design a wind disturbance observer and propose a wind disturbance estimator to separate the friction observer output from the wind disturbance observer output. We confirm through experiments that the proposed method can reduce vibration.     

Power system state estimation using a direct non-iterative method

This paper describes a new method for state estimation of a non-linear AC power system in a non-iterative manner. This method is based on the Kipnis–Shamir relinearization technique that is used to solve over-defined sets of polynomial equations. The technique transforms the equations to a higher dimensional linear space which allows the states to be solved in a non-iterative manner. Given accurate measurements, this new state estimation method provides the same results as traditional iterative state estimation methods, and the proposed method does not require an initial guess of system states nor does it have issues with convergence.     

Robust energy-to-peak sideslip angle estimation with applications to ground vehicles

In this paper, the observer design problem for the sideslip angle of ground vehicles is investigated. The sideslip angle is an important signal for the vehicle lateral stability, which is not measurable by using an affordable physical sensor. Therefore, we aim to estimate the sideslip angle with the yaw rate measurements by employing the vehicle dynamics. The nonlinear lateral dynamics is modeled firstly. As the tyre model is nonlinear and the road adhesive coefficient is subject to a large variation, the nonlinear lateral dynamics is transformed into an uncertain model. Considering the variation of longitudinal velocity, an uncertain linear-parameter-varying (LPV) system is obtained. Based on the LPV model, a gain-scheduling observer is proposed and the observer gain can be determined with off-line computation and on-line computation. The off-line computation includes the calculation of a set of linear matrix inequalities and the on-line computation contains several algebraic operations. The proposed design methodology is applied to a four-wheel-independent-drive electric vehicle in simulation. It infers from different maneuvers that the designed observer has a good performance on estimating the sideslip angle.     

Backtesting portfolio value-at-risk with estimated portfolio weights

This article theoretically and empirically analyzes backtesting portfolio value-at-risk (VaR) with estimation risk in an intrinsically multi-variate framework. It particularly takes into account the estimation of portfolio weights in forecasting portfolio VaR and its impact on backtesting. It shows that the estimation risk from estimating portfolio weights and that from estimating the multi-variate dynamic model make the existing methods in a univariate framework inapplicable. It proposes a general theory to quantify estimation risk applicable to the present problem and suggests practitioners a simple but effective way to implement valid inference to overcome the effect of estimation risk in backtesting portfolio VaR. In particular, we apply our theory to the efficient mean-variance-skewness portfolio for a multi-variate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with multi-variate general hyperbolic distributed innovations. Some Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application demonstrate the merits of our method.